Since the mid-2000s, Ukraine has become a key factor in Euro-Atlantic security due to Russia’s aggressive foreign policy. The significance of Ukraine heightened with Russia’s 2014 invasion and full-scale aggression in 2022, which the West perceived as a direct threat requiring a strong response. Ukraine’s resistance has positioned it as a crucial defender against Russian expansion, while China has exploited the situation for its interests. These dynamics shape the geopolitical strategies of the West, Russia, and China, making Ukraine central to global security concerns and influencing NATO and EU strategies.
Ukraine’s resistance has significantly weakened Russia’s military capabilities and thwarted its ability to threaten NATO countries. By showcasing its ability to counter Russian aggression, Ukraine has challenged the notion of Russia’s invincibility and influenced NATO’s stance. As a result, NATO has intensified its deterrence efforts against Russia, recognising it as a primary adversary and reinforcing its military presence in Central and Eastern Europe, as well as the Baltic States, echoing Cold War-era strategies.
Ukraine’s importance extends beyond merely deterring Russian expansion; it plays a crucial role in the balance of power between Europe and Russia due to its strategic location and significant resources. The outcome of Russia’s war against Ukraine has global implications for democracy versus totalitarianism. The U.S. and Europe seek a strong, stable Ukraine for Euro-Atlantic security and regional stability. Ukraine is also vital to the West as a major market, economic asset, and key grain exporter. Consequently, Western support has intensified since Russia’s full-scale aggression in 2022, focusing on economic aid, reforms, and military assistance, alongside sanctions against Russia.
The EU and NATO cooperate with Ukraine at various levels but have yet to grant it full membership due to differing views on Ukraine’s integration and the resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. NATO, in particular, avoids direct military involvement to prevent escalating the conflict with Russia. The West’s military support for Ukraine is precautionary, aimed at preventing a Russian advance into Europe, though it is indirectly sacrificing Ukraine’s immediate security for broader stability. Western aid fluctuates with political changes, as seen with the temporary halt and subsequent resumption of U.S. assistance. Meanwhile, Russia seeks to control Ukraine to restore its influence and access key regions, using Ukraine’s resources to potentially launch further attacks on Central and Eastern Europe.
Since 1991, Russia has systematically put pressure on Ukraine through information, economic, and energy warfare. After these methods failed and Ukraine’s Revolution of Dignity succeeded, Russia shifted to military tactics, seizing Crimea and Donbas in 2014 and launching a further invasion in 2022. Despite these efforts, Russia has only partially succeeded, resulting in a strategic defeat and significant resource expenditure, exacerbated by US and EU sanctions.
China’s interests in Russia’s war of invasion of Ukraine involve using Russia to enhance its geopolitical position against the West while expanding its business access to Russian markets and resources. However, China also values its trade relations with the US and EU, making it cautious of Western sanctions. Consequently, China supports Russia but discreetly promotes peace negotiations aligned with Russian terms, leveraging its influence due to Russia’s economic dependence on China.
Third World countries, particularly those in the Global South, see Ukraine as crucial for their food security and stability. They also view involvement in peacekeeping as a chance to boost their international standing. This creates a complex and evolving situation for Ukraine, with both opportunities and challenges for its development and survival.
The fundamental geopolitical goals of the West and Russia regarding Ukraine remain unchanged. As the conflict drags on, depleting resources and forcing compromises, a potential second peace summit involving Russia and China by late 2024 could be significant. However, this will likely not alter the overall dynamics or threats facing Ukraine. Continued efforts to bolster Ukraine’s defence and integrate with European and Euro-Atlantic structures remain essential for the country’s independent future.
James Wilson is a Brussels based journalist and political commentator.
